-LRB- CNN -RRB- -- The six-point peace plan for Syria proposed by Kofi Annan is doomed to fail for one simple reason : Neither President Bashar al-Assad nor the government opposition is interested in making it work .

For al-Assad , full implementation of the plan , which includes a political settlement through dialogue and respect for the rights of citizens to demonstrate peacefully , will bring an end to his regime . From the onset of the uprisings , his government knew that a repeat of the protests in Egypt 's Tahrir Square or Bahrain 's Pearl Square in Damascus or Aleppo will mean regime change . Al-Assad and his inner circle are not about to create conditions that are conducive for such sit-ins just because the Annan plan calls on them to do so .

For the opposition groups , Annan could spend all the time he wants on negotiations , but any talks not predicated on al-Assad 's stepping aside will not be acceptable . The activists who are spearheading Syria 's revolution insist that the opposition exile leadership has a limited mandate and that is to discuss details for the transfer of power from the Assad family to the opposition .

The bottom line is that the two main protagonists in the conflict look at the Annan plan as a means to achieve their respective , mutually exclusive objectives .

By agreeing to the Annan plan , al-Assad pursues a dual-track strategy : He appeases his Russian and Iranian allies , who have been pressuring him to accept a political solution , while working to kill his way out of the crisis under the pretext that he is confronting `` armed terrorists and gangs . ''

The opposition wants the cease-fire in order to field mass protests . As one activist from Hama put it to me recently : `` We do n't need military intervention , we do n't need humanitarian corridors , we do n't need safe areas . Enforce the cease-fire and millions will march toward the presidential palace demanding Assad 's ouster . ''

After more than a year of uprisings , Syria is still stuck in a violent stalemate . Al-Assad has not been able to crush the opposition , and opposition seems nowhere near to dislodging al-Assad . Increasingly , the conflict is being framed in existential terms , with some involved becoming more radicalized .

The majority of Alawites believe their physical survival is at stake , because they are convinced al-Assad 's demise will engender wide-scale revenge killings on them . Hence , they will not accept a solution that will produce a new regime in which they are not guaranteed a leading role . Similarly , the opposition groups believe that if they stop now and al-Assad remains in power , he will hunt them down .

Absent a game changer that will tip the balance in favor of one side or the other , the crisis in Syria will become a full-blown sectarian war pitting Sunnis against Alawites , which will likely spill over into the neighboring countries of Iraq and Lebanon .

Although military options have been considered by the West , it 's hard to say whether that would make a difference in reversing the dynamics in the country . A military operation might cause a regional war involving Turkey , Saudi Arabia and Iran , with each country supporting its allies in Syria .

For now , Iran 's Supreme Leader has cast his support firmly with al-Assad . A well-informed Iranian source told me that the Iranian regime will support al-Assad no matter what until the end . On the other hand , Russia 's Syria policy seems to be in flux judging by its vote in the United Nations recently . It 's too early to tell whether Russia will ease al-Assad out the way Saudi Arabia did in the case of Yemen 's Abdullah Saleh . Russia and Iran will probably not abandon al-Assad until they are part of the deal-making process about Syria 's future government .

One possible game changer is if the protest movement in Syria becomes widespread and covers large stretches of the country .

To date , only four of Syria 's 14 governorates constitute the major hubs of the protest movement : Homs , Hama , Idlib and Daraa . While we have seen protests in other regions , they have not been as sustained and extensive as those in the four governorates . This is partly due to the state of fragmentation in the opposition ranks , especially among the exile groups , which do not inspire confidence among fence-sitters .

Although large segments of fence-sitters including businessmen have come around to supporting the opposition , many remain ambivalent because they doubt the opposition will succeed in overthrowing al-Assad . This perception is reinforced by the fact that Annan 's plan does not call for al-Assad to step down -- a detail that is not missed by the Assad regime propaganda machine .

While the exile opposition remains divided , there are hopeful signs that the opposition ranks within Syria are becoming better organized , better trained and gaining legitimacy .

The future leaders of Syria will not come from the Syrian National Council or the National Coordination Committee for Change ; they will emerge from the ranks of the revolutionary councils that are forming in different parts of the country .

These councils bring together an eclectic mix of the most active local coordinating committees , independent activists , community and business leaders and military defectors . They are putting in place an administrative infrastructure that is akin to a local provincial council , handling everything from media affairs to helping families who lost their homes to providing legal aid to jailed activists . They are also coordinating with each other to protect relief supply lines that cross their respective territories . In the process , the leaders in these councils , who hail from Syria 's different religious and ethnic groups , are developing political skills , cultivating local constituencies and learning through trial and error the business of governing .

In a country that is increasingly polarized along sectarian and ethnic lines , these councils can perhaps provide the glue that keeps the country stitched together .

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Randa Slim .

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Randa Slim : The peace plan for Syria proposed by Kofi Annan is doomed to fail

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Slim : After more than a year of uprisings , Syria is still stuck in a violent stalemate

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She says one possible game changer is if the protests in Syria become more widespread

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Slim : Members in local councils are Syria 's best hope for future leadership